May 2012 MLB Events
Calendar of MLB Events for May 2012 brought to you by bet-on-baseball-now.com
MLB: Seattle run line system looks like sure fire winner
2010-06-29
According to bookmakers we’ve spoken with on the subject, only a sparse percentage of baseball bettors dabble in run line wagering. Money line and totals wagering dominates the baseball scene. Still, you have to wonder, if bettors were aware of powerful run line systems like the one affecting the Mariners-Yankees game for Tuesday, would this pattern change? Let’s take a look at the key angle favoring Seattle from FoxSheets and how it could impact the contest. The M’s are +1.5, -150 dogs according to Sportsbook.com.
Here is the key betting system:
Play On - All underdogs against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line =-190 to -135) (SEATTLE) - with a poor bullpen whose ERA is 4.50 or worse on the season, with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 1.100 over his last 10 games. (43-4 over the last 5 seasons.) (91.5%, +36 units. Rating = 5*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (34-13 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average run line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 1.5, money line price: -176
The average score in these games was: Team 4.3, Opponent 3.1 (Average run differential = +1.2)
The number of games in which this system covered the run line by 1 or more runs was 34 (72.3% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (6-0, +6 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (14-1, +11.9 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (100-37, +37.1 units).
Typically I don’t endorse strategies that indicate to back a team with a bad bullpen, but the history of success on this system is just too much to pass up. With a 6-0 mark already in 2010, StatFox has uncovered an angle that has won 43 of its last 47 games, nearly automatic. As you can see as well, the straight up record of this underdog team is 34-13 in that same time span, with our hot starting pitcher holding the opponent to just 3.1 runs on average.
Of course the pitcher of note in our system is Mariners’ left-hander Cliff Lee, one of baseball's best (6-3, 2.39). According to source, Lee may be on the trading block again with the Mariners well out of contention. The 2008 AL Cy Young Award winner would be a prize acquisition as he's turning in a spectacular season with 76 strikeouts and four walks.
"I feel good," said Lee, who hasn't issued a walk in 37 innings. "I like where I'm at."
Lee pitched a six-hitter in a 1-0 win over Cincinnati on June 18, and followed that up by scattering nine hits and striking out nine Wednesday in an 8-1 victory over the Chicago Cubs.
The left-hander is facing New York for the first time since going 2-0 with a 2.81 ERA in two starts for Philadelphia in last year's World Series. Including one outing in the postseason, he's 4-0 with a 1.26 ERA in his last four games in the Bronx - two at the new Yankee Stadium.
In what figures to be a thrilling pitching matchup, Lee will be opposed by Phil Hughes, who has enjoyed some extra rest before he tries to win his sixth straight start. New York (47-28) opted not to pitch the 24-year-old Hughes (10-1, 3.17 ERA) during its six-game road trip last week in order to limit his innings. He's one behind Tampa Bay's David Price for the AL lead in victories.
"I don't think I've pitched well enough to really have that record," Hughes told MLB.com. "I've pitched some good games, but the offense has been great. Some of them, I've been lucky and have tried to just keep us in the game. Yeah, I'm surprised, but it's great. Every time I take the hill, I want to win."
Hughes is 5-0 with a 3.86 ERA since his last loss, and 6-0 with a 3.71 ERA in seven outings at home heading into his second career start against Seattle (31-44).
With the money line set at Yankees -155 according to Sportsbook.com, this will be just the second time this season that Lee has pitched as an underdog. He lost a 2-1 decision at Tampa Bay as a +135 dog on May 16th. The StatFox Power Line indicates the line should be Yankees -145.
MLB: MLB Top Weekend Power Trends (9/4-9/6)
2009-09-04
It’s the Labor Day Holiday Weekend, and while this time of the year is best known in sports circles for the kickoff of the football season, it is also important in baseball. Pennant races are heating up and with only four weeks left in the season, there’s only so much time for those chasing to gain ground. With a full slate of games on tap once again for the weekend, we are here to look at all of the key action, plus deliver this week’s Top StatFox Power Trends for you to capitalize on in your wagering.
The wildcard races are the closest of any chase for playoff positioning in both leagues. In the American League, Boston continues to set the pace, but Texas is just 3-games back. The Rangers also have their sights set on the A.L. West title though, trailing the Angels by 3-1/2 games. All three of the aforementioned teams will be on the road this weekend, with Boston visiting Chicago, Texas traveling to Baltimore, and the Angels making a visit to America’s heartland to take on Kansas City. The Halos have swept the Royals in six games this season, while the Red have taken 14 of the last 19 in the battle of the Sox.
Elsewhere in the Junior Circuit, the league’s hottest team, the Yankees, winners of seven straight games headed into the weekend, take a trip north of the border to Toronto. This figures to be the ultimate battle of hot & not, as while New York has put together that nice winning streak, the Jays have dropped seven of eight and seem to have packed it in for the year. The Bronx Bombers have taken 10 of 13 games overall in this head-to-head series this year, including five of six in Toronto.
In the National League, there isn’t a single series in which two winning teams are playing one another, so this figures to be a weekend where only upsets will make noise. Each of the three divisions shows a comfortable margin between first & second place so the leaders will just try to continue to set the pace. Philadelphia is in Houston, St. Louis travels to Pittsburgh, and the Dodgers welcome San Diego to town.
The one N.L. race still in play is that in the wildcard race, where the Rockies and Giants are separated by just a single game. Colorado has the easier series on paper this weekend, taking on Arizona at home, while San Francisco is in Milwaukee. The D-backs have played better of late though, coming into this set on a 6-2 run. They have also played the Rockies tough in 2009, splitting 12 games. The Giants and Brewers have also split six games this year, but Milwaukee is not playing well, having slipped out of the race over the last month. If either of the two wildcard front runners slip, Atlanta & Florida, both 4-games out, will look to capitalize. The Marlins are in Washington, and the Braves are hosting the suddenly hot Reds.
Now, here’s a look at those Top StatFox Power Trends that figure to be in play for the next few days…
FLORIDA at WASHINGTON
WASHINGTON is 13-42 (-21.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was WASHINGTON 4.1, OPPONENT 5.9 - (Rating = 1*)
ST LOUIS at PITTSBURGH
PITTSBURGH is 5-26 (-18.3 Units) against the money line vs. NL teams allowing 4.3 or less runs/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was PITTSBURGH 3.0, OPPONENT 5.5 - (Rating = 1*)
CHICAGO CUBS at NY METS
CHICAGO CUBS are 27-38 (-14.8 Units) against the money line in road games this season. The average score was CHICAGO CUBS 3.8, OPPONENT 4.3 - (Rating = 1*)
CINCINNATI at ATLANTA
ATLANTA is 11-16 (-10.9 Units) against the money line when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 38% to 46%) this season. The average score was ATLANTA 4.6, OPPONENT 4.4 - (Rating = 1*)
PHILADELPHIA at HOUSTON
PHILADELPHIA is 15-6 (+10.3 Units) against the money line in road games vs. an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game this season. The average score was PHILADELPHIA 5.4, OPPONENT 3.8 - (Rating = 2*)
SAN FRANCISCO at MILWAUKEE
MILWAUKEE is 12-27 (-15.5 Units) against the money line vs. NL teams allowing 4.3 or less runs/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was MILWAUKEE 3.7, OPPONENT 5.7 - (Rating = 1*)
ARIZONA at COLORADO
COLORADO is 89-58 (+23.4 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. The average score was COLORADO 5.4, OPPONENT 4.5 - (Rating = 1*)
SAN DIEGO at LA DODGERS
LA DODGERS are 50-27 (+17.7 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .250 or worse over the last 2 seasons. The average score was LA DODGERS 5.1, OPPONENT 4.2 - (Rating = 1*)
TEXAS at BALTIMORE
BALTIMORE is 8-25 (-15.9 Units) against the money line vs. a good bullpen that converts on 75%+ of their save opportunities this season. The average score was BALTIMORE 4.8, OPPONENT 6.8 - (Rating = 1*)
NY YANKEES at TORONTO
TORONTO is 7-22 (-16.0 Units) against the money line vs. AL teams allowing 4.7 or less runs/game in the second half of the season this season. The average score was TORONTO 4.3, OPPONENT 5.6 - (Rating = 2*)
MINNESOTA at CLEVELAND
CLEVELAND is 14-25 (-13.2 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record this season. The average score was CLEVELAND 4.3, OPPONENT 4.7 - (Rating = 1*)
DETROIT at TAMPA BAY
DETROIT is 12-32 (-18.3 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. The average score was DETROIT 4.2, OPPONENT 5.9 - (Rating = 1*)
LA ANGELS at KANSAS CITY
LA ANGELS are 18-4 (+13.1 Units) against the money line vs. teams outscored by opp by 0.5 or more runs/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was LA ANGELS 6.6, OPPONENT 4.8 - (Rating = 2*)
BOSTON at CHI WHITE SOX
BOSTON is 11-16 (-11.9 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .260 or worse this season. The average score was BOSTON 4.7, OPPONENT 5.0 - (Rating = 2*)
SEATTLE at OAKLAND
OAKLAND is 5-18 (-14.8 Units) against the money line when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 54%) this season. The average score was OAKLAND 3.9, OPPONENT 5.4 - (Rating = 3*)
MLB: Streaking Baseball teams look to extend
2009-05-05
The Milwaukee Brewers and Los Angels Dodgers are working conspicuous streaks, each in different manners. As each team wraps up brief two game series against opponent, they continue the pursuit of the record books, which would place them among the all-time leaders in what they have been able to accomplish. Both teams are slight favorites in their respective games. Get the latest prices on the LIVE ODDS page.
You have heard the expression “We own these guys”, which is often an overstated boast, having come from confidence real or imagined, In the case of Milwaukee (14-12, +2 units), any sentiment felt by players or fans would be absolutely 100 percent accurate. The Brewers have beaten Pittsburgh 16 consecutive times, the last team to do that was Arizona over Cincinnati from 2001-03.
Milwaukee is edging ever closer to Baltimore’s dominance over Kansas City in 1969-70, when the Orioles won 23 straight over the Royals. This has not been an easy streak to ride by sports bettors either, unless you started near the beginning. The Brewers have picked up +16 units during this streak, but have been a -180 or higher money line favorites 10 times, meaning to come in various points, would have been a costly loss.
The Brew Crew will start Jeff Suppan (1-2, 5.88 ERA, 1.462 WHIP), who has enjoyed great success against the Bucs (12-13, +1.2). The veteran right-hander is rounding back into form, with 2.95 ERA in last three starts, which Milwaukee won each time. Suppan is super 12-3 with a 4.20 ERA versus the Pirates, including 5-0 in his last seven starts against them.
He will face Ian Snell (1-3, 3.72, 1.621) who has been throwing well with 1.89 ERA in last trio of trips to the mound, though has more walks than strikeouts (12 vs 11), which problematic against a team that was won this many in a row.
Maybe Pittsburgh’s luck will change as the game is a Pick at Sportsbook.com with total Un8.5. The Pirates haven’t been hitting, however are 18-11 (+11.2 Units) against the money line after batting .225 or worse over a five-game span over the last two seasons. Milwaukee is sharp 25-8 vs. a mediocre bullpen whose WHIP is 1.450 to 1.550.
Later tonight, the Dodgers look to a tie a record, which Chicago Cubs fans can appreciate, in terms of time. Los Angeles (19-8, +10.1) broke the National League record for most home wins to start the season with 11 last night in downing Arizona 7-2. That broke the league record shared by the 1918 New York Giants, 1970 Chicago Cubs, and 1983 Atlanta Braves who started 10-0. Ironically, Dodgers manager Joe Torre was the skipper of that Braves team.
Next is the record that is almost a century old (Cubs’ fans are you paying attention), as the Detroit Tigers of 1911 started the year with a dozen victories at Bennett Park, which was destroyed after the season, because of the threat of fire, being made entirely of wood.
The Dodgers haven’t been squeaking by opponents either, outscoring them by 4.3 runs per game at Dodger Stadium, being the top scoring team in the National League in home ball park. Los Angeles is batting .332 with 15 homers at home and has 2.52 ERA, having held opponents to a .190 batting average there. “It’s sweet. We just have to keep adding on now,” catcher Russell Martin said.
All of these figures don’t bode well for Arizona (11-15, -5.7), who have lost six straight at Dodger Stadium and 10 of 12 to L.A. The Dodgers are 11-1 at home after allowing four runs or less in four straight games and will start Jeff Weaver. The ordinary right-hander will make first start since Sept. of 2007, after he pitched four scoreless innings of relief against San Diego in his season debut Thursday.
Arizona’s Max Scherzer (0-2, 3.48, 1.306) is still seeking elusive first major league victory, despite pitching above average. The hard throwing right-hander is 0-6 with a 3.17 ERA in 20 career games. In his 11 starts, the Diamondbacks have managed one victory.
As the Dodgers chase history, they are -125 money line favorites, with total Un9. The D-Backs lack of hitting (.226 BA and 3.8 RPG) has them at 5-15 in road games after three or more consecutive Unders since last year.
Milwaukee and L.A. can add to the coffers of loyal followers tonight.
BASEBALL 7/20-7/22
2008-07-09
The New York Mets and Los Angeles Dodgers are both in tight races in their respective divisions and will conclude a four game series over the weekend at Dodger Stadium. The way the pitching match-ups currently set up, Los Angeles should have the edge with Brad Penny pitching on Friday and New York with Oliver Perez on Saturday. Sunday’s final game is a virtual toss-up.
The Dodgers will face Perez and Tom Glavine in the series and might well have an advantage with 17-8 record against left-handed starters. The final two games will be daytime affairs and the Mets are only 14-13 in the light of day. Arizona and the Chicago Cubs are both battling to stay in contention in the National League West and Central divisions and each will look to enhance their case with a three game series in the Windy City. This weekend series will conclude an important 11-game homestand for the Cubs. Chicago has been one of the hottest teams in the senior circuit since the latter stages of June, steadily gaining ground on front running Milwaukee. Arizona is in the third place in their division and is right smack in the middle of playing 17 games in 17 days.
The Diamondbacks inconsistent offense has them in the bottom five of runs scored, playing towards the Under this season. Arizona will not be intimidated by the Wrigley Field surroundings, having won 7 of 11 over the last three seasons at this ballpark. The Detroit Tigers has to be careful about a letdown facing last place Kansas City at Comerica Park. These will be the Tigers only three home games from the All-Star break until August 3 and they must dispose of inferior opponent to stay at or near the lead in American League Central. Detroit has been the top scoring team in baseball most of the season and has particularly proficient at playing Over at home with 29-13-2 record, easily the highest in baseball.
The Tigers took the earlier series back in April and are 14-8 against the Royals in MoTown. If the Detroit offense is clicking, they could well improve upon 26-8 record in contests decided by four or more runs. Make sure to jump in early on the MLB action at Sportsbook.com to enhance your chances to win before the lines start moving for individual games and series wagering.